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  • Writer's pictureJose Gustavo Salcedo

Market Watch: Bank of Canada Rate Cut Expectations and Economic Outlook

Updated: Feb 14

Market Watch: Bank of Canada Rate Cut Expectations and Economic Outlook

In the ever-evolving landscape of economic predictions, market participants are holding their breath for potential changes in the Bank of Canada's policy rates. Despite a cautious stance from the Bank, the majority of influential economists and analysts are forecasting a rate cut as early as April.

What the Survey Reveals:

The Bank of Canada's quarterly Market Participants Survey, involving 30 key financial market players, indicates a consensus for a 25 basis points rate cut in April, followed by an additional 75 basis points by December. This would bring the current overnight target rate of 5.00% down to 4.00%.

Interestingly, these expectations align with the participants foreseeing another full percentage point reduction in 2025, reaching an overnight rate of 3.00%.

It's worth noting that these projections have remained consistent since the Bank's third-quarter survey. Despite recent statements from Bank of Canada Governor Macklem, emphasizing the need to complete the job of getting inflation down, market participants seem confident in their rate-cut predictions.

Inflation Optimism:

On the inflation front, survey respondents express optimism that the Bank will achieve its near-2% inflation goal by the end of the year. The median survey results suggest headline inflation falling to 2.3% by the close of 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. These projections are more positive than the Bank of Canada's current forecasts, anticipating inflation to reach 2.8% by the year-end before dropping to 2.2% in 2025.

Despite the positive sentiment, market participants are closely monitoring potential downside risks to economic growth. A weaker housing market tops the list, followed by concerns about tighter financial conditions and lower commodity prices.

Recession Odds on the Horizon:

The survey also unveils a median expectation of a 48% chance of a recession in the next six months, up from 40% in the previous survey. However, the odds of a recession in the next six to 12 months fell to 40% from 48% in the Q3 survey.

Differing opinions among economists add complexity to the recession forecast. Some, like economists from Desjardins, anticipate a recession within the first half of this year. On the contrary, others, such as Oxford Economics, argue that Canada might already be in the midst of a recession, with further economic challenges anticipated throughout 2024.

As the economic landscape continues to shift, market participants remain watchful, balancing optimism about inflation goals with concerns about potential economic downturns and the timing of the Bank of Canada's policy adjustments. Stay tuned for updates as these developments unfold.

Source From: Wealth Professional

Adapted by Jose Gustavo

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